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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Swansea 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Swansea 2-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.32 xG and Swansea 1.10 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Swansea attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 41% | Draw 29% | Swansea 30%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 44%, Swansea 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Swansea's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, Swansea 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights