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Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Swansea 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Swansea 2-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.82 xG and Swansea 1.09 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.75 / defence 1.10 against Swansea attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 25% | Draw 35% | Swansea 39%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 51%, Swansea 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Swansea's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.28 PPG, Swansea 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights