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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hull City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Southampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Southampton 3-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.46 xG and Southampton 1.41 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against Southampton attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 51/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 39% | Draw 25% | Southampton 36%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 35%, Southampton 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Southampton's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 0.98 PPG against 0.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm. Southampton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights