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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Sheffield Utd 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Sheffield Utd 1-0 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.66 xG and Sheffield Utd 1.10 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sheffield Utd landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.24 / defence 1.27 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.74 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 50% | Draw 26% | Sheffield Utd 24%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 39%, Sheffield Utd 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sheffield Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Hull City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights