Hull City 0-2 Sheffield Utd – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hull City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Sheffield Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sheffield Utd make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 13 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 1W 7D 2L across 10 games at The MKM Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sheffield Utd's overall Championship record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sheffield Utd have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sheffield Utd's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Hull City against 0.80 for Sheffield Utd. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hull City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sheffield Utd in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Sheffield Utd, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Sheffield Utd winning.
It is worth noting that Sheffield Utd have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sheffield Utd goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 60% versus Sheffield Utd 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 55% | Sheffield Utd 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.13 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.853 / defence 0.923 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.952 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.124. Data: 50 Hull City games / 4 Sheffield Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Utd 31%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Sheffield Utd 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Hull City 60% | Sheffield Utd 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Sheffield Utd | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 39% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Utd 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Hull City 1.13 / Sheffield Utd 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.853 / def 0.923 | Sheffield Utd attack 0.952 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Hull City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sheffield Utd xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Sheffield Utd kick off?
Hull City vs Sheffield Utd kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 13 September 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Hull City 0 - 2 Sheffield Utd.
Where is Hull City vs Sheffield Utd being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Sheffield Utd part of?
Hull City vs Sheffield Utd is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 39% chance of winning, Sheffield Utd a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hull City and Sheffield Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Sheffield Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Utd?
Record (4 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 1 | Sheffield Utd 3W.
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Utd in?
Hull City (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Sheffield Utd (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hull City's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sheffield Utd's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — Sheffield Utd's attack (0.95x) against Hull City's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.37
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.12
0.99
Sheffield Utd xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hull City and Sheffield Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Hull City and 0.99 for Sheffield Utd, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Sheffield Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City's recent record stands at 15W 13D 14L from 42 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sheffield Utd, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 28L across 42 games — 0.57 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sheffield Utd, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hull City by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sheffield Utd heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sheffield Utd's away record stands at 2W 4D 15L across 21 trips, a 0.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Utd are on 0.98 scored and 2.55 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Sheffield Utd
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Sheffield Utd in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 15W 13D 14L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Sheffield Utd have gone 5W 9D 28L in their last 42 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Sheffield Utd away?
Hull City's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.38 PPG; Sheffield Utd away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hull City won 0-3 on 24 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sheffield Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hull City
1
Draws
5
Sheffield Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Sheffield Utd?
From 8 meetings on record, Hull City have won 2, Sheffield Utd have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Sheffield Utd last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sheffield Utd 2-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Sheffield Utd?
Sheffield Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sheffield Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 57%, Sheffield Utd 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hull City) and 52% (Sheffield Utd).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Utd in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Sheffield Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Sheffield Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hull City's games and 57% of Sheffield Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Sheffield Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hull City's recent games and 52% of Sheffield Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Sheffield Utd tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sheffield Utd in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sheffield Utd cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sheffield Utd beat Hull City 0-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.13 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.99 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sheffield Utd outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 39% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Utd 31%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sheffield Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 55%, Sheffield Utd 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sheffield Utd's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Sheffield Utd winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sheffield Utd (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.