Hull City 0-0 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Rotherham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 39 as Hull City welcome Rotherham to The MKM Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rotherham — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rotherham's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hull City 1.30 PPG, Rotherham 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hull City, 0 for Rotherham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 4–2 with Hull City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (83 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Rotherham trading profile (83 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 40% versus Rotherham 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 36% | Rotherham 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.33 xG and Rotherham 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.897 / defence 1.054 | Rotherham attack 0.644 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.047. Data: 84 Hull City games / 37 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 51% | Draw 30% | Rotherham 19%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Rotherham 5.26. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 60% | Rotherham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Rotherham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 51% | Draw 30% | Rotherham 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Hull City 1.33 / Rotherham 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.897 / def 1.054 | Rotherham attack 0.644 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Hull City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Rotherham xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Rotherham kick off?
Hull City vs Rotherham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Rotherham?
Hull City 0 - 0 Rotherham.
Where is Hull City vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Rotherham part of?
Hull City vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 51% chance of winning, Rotherham a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hull City and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Rotherham?
Record (1 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 0 | Rotherham 0W.
What form are Hull City and Rotherham in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Rotherham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hull City's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Rotherham's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 84/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.34
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.04
0.71
Rotherham xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
5%
19.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Hull City and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hull City and 0.71 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Rotherham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City come into this having played 83 games, going 25W 20D 38L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Rotherham sit at 1.57 PPG from 83 outings (36W 22D 25L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Rotherham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Hull City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hull City's home form reads 14W 8D 20L across 42 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Rotherham have taken 1.33 points per game from 42 outings (14W 14D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.34 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Rotherham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 25W 20D 38L in their last 83 games (1.14 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 36W 22D 25L in their last 83 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Rotherham away?
Rotherham's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.19 PPG; Rotherham away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hull City or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Rotherham in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Rotherham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hull City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2023, when Hull City won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Rotherham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hull City
1
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Rotherham?
From 4 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Rotherham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Rotherham 1-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Rotherham?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Hull City 43% BTTS, Rotherham 24%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Hull City and 24% for Rotherham.
On the defensive side: Rotherham in 48%; Hull City have failed to score in 38% of games; Rotherham in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Hull City's recent matches and 24% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 24% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Rotherham tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rotherham in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hull City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 39, as Hull City and Rotherham drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.33 xG and Rotherham 0.71 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Rotherham attack 0.64 / defence 1.17, drawn from 84/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 51% | Draw 30% | Rotherham 19%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 36%, Rotherham 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (83 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rotherham's trading profile (83 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.02 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Rotherham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.