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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

QPR beat Hull City 1-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.96 xG and QPR 0.95 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. QPR outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against QPR attack 0.82 / defence 0.82, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 33% | Draw 34% | QPR 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, QPR 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.32 PPG, QPR 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights