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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Preston 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Preston 2-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.17 xG and Preston 1.02 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Preston attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 89/89 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 39% | Draw 29% | Preston 32%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 45%, Preston 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Preston's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.29 PPG, Preston 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights