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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Portsmouth 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Portsmouth 3-2 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.69 xG and Portsmouth 0.98 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Portsmouth outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.14 / defence 1.08 against Portsmouth attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 54% | Draw 24% | Portsmouth 22%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 40%, Portsmouth 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Portsmouth's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.18 PPG, Portsmouth 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights