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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Oxford United 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Oxford United 2-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.18 xG and Oxford United 0.72 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against Oxford United attack 0.60 / defence 1.01, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 46% | Draw 32% | Oxford United 22%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 48%, Oxford United 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Oxford United's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.30 PPG, Oxford United 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights