Hull City 1-1 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Nottingham Forest at The MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 46. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Hull City have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hull City have posted 4W 0D 6L at The MKM Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nottingham Forest stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Nottingham Forest away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Nottingham Forest — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Hull City's 20% rate and Nottingham Forest's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hull City, 1 for Nottingham Forest and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Nottingham Forest winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hull City in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 29% versus Nottingham Forest 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 31% | Nottingham Forest 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.69 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.811 / defence 1.188 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.870 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.151. Nottingham Forest's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Hull City games / 45 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 22% | Draw 31% | Nottingham Forest 48%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Nottingham Forest 2.08. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hull City's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nottingham Forest at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 20% | Nottingham Forest 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 46 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 22% | Draw 31% | Nottingham Forest 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Hull City 0.69 / Nottingham Forest 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.811 / def 1.188 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.870 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Nottingham Forest xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Hull City vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Nottingham Forest?
Hull City 1 - 1 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Hull City vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Hull City vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 46 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 22% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 48% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Hull City and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Nottingham Forest?
Record (1 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 1W.
What form are Hull City and Nottingham Forest in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.81) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
22%
4.64
31%
3.27
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.88
1.19
Nottingham Forest xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
7%
15.25
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 18.1 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Hull City and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Hull City and 1.19 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City's recent record stands at 14W 8D 23L from 45 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 12L across 45 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nottingham Forest by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hull City heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 7W 3D 12L from 22 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 10W 6D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.60 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 14W 8D 23L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 23W 10D 12L in their last 45 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Nottingham Forest's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.09 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Hull City or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Nottingham Forest runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hull City
1
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Nottingham Forest?
From 2 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Hull City 1-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 32%, Nottingham Forest 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Hull City and 32% for Nottingham Forest.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest in 36%; Hull City have failed to score in 46% of games; Nottingham Forest in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Hull City's recent matches and 46% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Hull City's recent games and 32% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Nottingham Forest share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City and Nottingham Forest finished level at 1-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.69 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.19 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.87 / defence 0.79, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 22% | Draw 31% | Nottingham Forest 48%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 31%, Nottingham Forest 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.