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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Norwich 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City beat Norwich 2-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.15 xG and Norwich 1.82 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Norwich landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.01 / defence 1.18 against Norwich attack 1.28 / defence 0.87, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 23% | Draw 26% | Norwich 52%, with Norwich to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 47%, Norwich 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Norwich's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.31 PPG, Norwich 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights