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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hull City and Norwich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Hull City and Norwich drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.15 xG and Norwich 1.08 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Norwich attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 77/78 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 37% | Draw 29% | Norwich 34%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 51%, Norwich 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Norwich's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.29 PPG, Norwich 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights