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Stalemate at Hull City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MKM Stadium, Semi-finals, as Hull City and Millwall drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.09 xG and Millwall 1.49 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Millwall landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Millwall attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 26% | Draw 29% | Millwall 45%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 48%, Millwall 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (92 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Millwall's trading profile (92 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.33 PPG, Millwall 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights