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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Millwall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hull City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Millwall beat Hull City 1-3 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.20 xG and Millwall 1.55 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Millwall outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.09 / defence 1.27 against Millwall attack 1.01 / defence 0.84, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 28% | Draw 27% | Millwall 44%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 44%, Millwall 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Millwall's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Millwall 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Millwall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.02 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights