🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Hull City 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Middlesbrough beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.26 xG and Middlesbrough 1.83 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Middlesbrough landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.78 / defence 1.10 against Middlesbrough attack 1.64 / defence 1.13, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 25% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 50%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 50%, Middlesbrough 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Middlesbrough's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.31 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights