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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hull City and Leeds share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Hull City and Leeds drew 3-3 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.75 xG and Leeds 1.22 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leeds outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.72 / defence 1.05 against Leeds attack 1.15 / defence 0.74, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 22% | Draw 33% | Leeds 46%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, Leeds 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights