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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hull City.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Hull City 0-2 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.58 xG and Ipswich 1.73 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.21 / defence 1.11 against Ipswich attack 1.29 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 35% | Draw 23% | Ipswich 42%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 42%, Ipswich 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ipswich's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.17 PPG, Ipswich 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights