Hull City 3-3 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 38%, yet in-form Ipswich provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hull City vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Ipswich at The MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Ipswich have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ipswich's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ipswich — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hull City have won 0, Ipswich 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Ipswich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hull City in-play and half-time data (89 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (89 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus Ipswich 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | Ipswich 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.27 xG and Ipswich 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.035 / defence 1.029 | Ipswich attack 1.020 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.137. Data: 90 Hull City games / 43 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 38% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 35%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Ipswich 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ipswich (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 60% | Ipswich 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 38% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Hull City 1.27 / Ipswich 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.035 / def 1.029 | Ipswich attack 1.020 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Hull City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Ipswich xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Ipswich kick off?
Hull City vs Ipswich kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Ipswich?
Hull City 3 - 3 Ipswich.
Where is Hull City vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Ipswich part of?
Hull City vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 38% chance of winning, Ipswich a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hull City and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Ipswich?
Record (1 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 0 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Hull City and Ipswich in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Ipswich (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.03x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.68
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.46
1.19
Ipswich xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Hull City and 1.19 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 89 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 32W 28D 29L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ipswich's form line: 54W 25D 10L from 89 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Ipswich are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hull City.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.41 PPG from 44 outings (16W 14D 14L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 23W 13D 8L from 44 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.09 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 89 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 32W 28D 29L in their last 89 games (1.39 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 54W 25D 10L in their last 89 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.41 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Hull City or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ipswich in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Ipswich runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2023, when Ipswich won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hull City
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Ipswich 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 52%, Ipswich 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hull City) and 48% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Ipswich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hull City's recent matches and 48% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hull City's recent games and 48% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Ipswich tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Ipswich share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Hull City and Ipswich drew 3-3 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.27 xG and Ipswich 1.19 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ipswich outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Ipswich attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 90/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 38% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 35%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, Ipswich 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.98 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.