🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Hull City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City and Coventry finished level at 0-0 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.28 xG and Coventry 2.09 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Coventry landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.12 / defence 1.32 against Coventry attack 1.33 / defence 0.87, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 22% | Draw 23% | Coventry 55%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 46%, Coventry 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Coventry's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Coventry 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights