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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hull City and Coventry share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City and Coventry finished level at 1-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.30 xG and Coventry 1.32 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Coventry attack 1.12 / defence 1.18, drawn from 87/87 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 36% | Draw 26% | Coventry 38%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 46%, Coventry 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Coventry's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hull City 1.31 PPG, Coventry 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights