🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Hull City and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hull City and Charlton finished level at 1-1 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.34 xG and Charlton 1.15 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.18 / defence 1.11 against Charlton attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 57/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hull City 41% | Draw 27% | Charlton 32%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 40%, Charlton 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hull City's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Charlton's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights