Hull City 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Wednesday 23 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's home record at The MKM Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Burnley arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hull City lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2023, ended 1–3 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Burnley goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 58% versus Burnley 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 56% | Burnley 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.86 xG and Burnley 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.900 / defence 1.067 | Burnley attack 1.055 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 0.962. Burnley's defence strength of 0.677 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Hull City games / 10 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 27% | Draw 35% | Burnley 38%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | Burnley 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 50% | Burnley 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 27% | Draw 35% | Burnley 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Hull City 0.86 / Burnley 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.900 / def 1.067 | Burnley attack 1.055 / def 0.677 | league avg home 1.420 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Burnley (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Burnley xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Burnley kick off?
Hull City vs Burnley kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 23 October 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Burnley?
Hull City 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Hull City vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Burnley part of?
Hull City vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 27% chance of winning, Burnley a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Hull City and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Burnley?
Record (2 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Hull City and Burnley in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Burnley (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Hull City vs Burnley?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.90x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.05x) against Hull City's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 56/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
27%
3.71
35%
2.89
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.95
1.08
Burnley xG
3.71
27%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 15.4 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Hull City and 1.08 for Burnley, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City's recent record stands at 18W 13D 17L from 48 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 25L across 48 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hull City by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hull City have managed 8W 8D 8L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 6W 6D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.19 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Burnley in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 18W 13D 17L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Burnley have gone 11W 12D 25L in their last 48 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Burnley away?
Hull City's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.33 PPG; Burnley away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hull City
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2025, when Burnley 2-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 54%, Burnley 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hull City) and 54% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hull City's games and 58% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hull City's recent games and 54% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Burnley tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Burnley in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Hull City and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.86 xG and Burnley 1.08 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Burnley attack 1.05 / defence 0.68, drawn from 56/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 27% | Draw 35% | Burnley 38%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 56%, Burnley 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hull City arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.