Hull City 0-1 Blackburn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Blackburn at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hull City welcome Blackburn to The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
At home, Hull City have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Hull City are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Blackburn have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Blackburn's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Blackburn's 1.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Hull City's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Hull City have won 3, Blackburn 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2023, ended Hull City 3–2 Blackburn — a Hull City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Blackburn trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 60% versus Blackburn 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 51% | Blackburn 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.02 xG and Blackburn 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.845 / defence 1.164 | Blackburn attack 0.988 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.051. Data: built from Hull City's last 64 games and Blackburn's last 63.
Result probabilities: Hull City 29% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 39%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 3.42 | Draw 3.12 | Blackburn 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Blackburn are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Blackburn 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, matchday 19 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 29% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Hull City 1.02 / Blackburn 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.845 / def 1.164 | Blackburn attack 0.988 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Blackburn xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Blackburn FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Blackburn kick off?
Hull City vs Blackburn kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Hull City 0 - 1 Blackburn.
Where is Hull City vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Blackburn part of?
Hull City vs Blackburn is a Championship fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 29% chance of winning, Blackburn a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hull City and Blackburn will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Hull City vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hull City's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 64 games and Blackburn's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
29%
3.42
32%
3.12
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.23
1.21
Blackburn xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Blackburn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Hull City and 1.21 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 19D 22L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Blackburn sit at 1.29 PPG from 63 outings (22W 15D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.35 PPG, Blackburn on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 8W 13D 10L across their last 31 home games, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackburn have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 31 away games (10W 7D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.29 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
Hull City (Home) vs Blackburn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Hull City vs Blackburn Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 22W 19D 22L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Blackburn away?
Hull City's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.19 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Aug 2025, when Blackburn won Hull City 0-3 Blackburn.
Hull City's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hull City
1
Draws
4
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Blackburn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Blackburn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 5, Blackburn have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hull City and Blackburn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Blackburn 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Blackburn?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 58%, Blackburn 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hull City) and 64% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 26% of games; Blackburn in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Blackburn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Blackburn matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hull City's recent matches and 45% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Blackburn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hull City's recent games and 64% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Blackburn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Hull City's recent matches and 68% of Blackburn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out Hull City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Hull City 0-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.02 xG and Blackburn 1.21 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hull City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against Blackburn attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 29% | Draw 32% | Blackburn 39%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 51%, Blackburn 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Blackburn's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.35 PPG, Blackburn 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 19
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →