Hull City 2-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Birmingham at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Birmingham in Championship, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 1W 2D 5L this season (8 games, 0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Birmingham (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Birmingham away from home this season: 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Hull City 24% | Birmingham 24%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hull City 24% | Birmingham 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.70 xG and Birmingham 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.676 / defence 1.317 | Birmingham attack 0.824 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.118. Hull City's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Hull City games / 17 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 21% | Draw 32% | Birmingham 48%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Birmingham 2.08. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 38% | Birmingham 12% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 21% | Draw 32% | Birmingham 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 36% | xG Hull City 0.70 / Birmingham 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.676 / def 1.317 | Birmingham attack 0.824 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Birmingham xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Birmingham kick off?
Hull City vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Birmingham?
Hull City 2 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is Hull City vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Birmingham part of?
Hull City vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 21% chance of winning, Birmingham a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Hull City and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Birmingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Birmingham in?
Hull City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Birmingham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.68) and Birmingham's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.82x) against Hull City's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
21%
4.87
32%
3.14
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.91
1.21
Birmingham xG
4.87
21%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.40
24%
4.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 17.9 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Hull City and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Hull City and 1.21 for Birmingham, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Hull City have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 3W 3D 11L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Birmingham's form line: 6W 4D 7L from 17 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Birmingham are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hull City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hull City have posted 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.06 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games; Birmingham in 24%.
Defensively: Birmingham in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 games (0.71 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Birmingham away?
Birmingham's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 0.62 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Hull City or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Birmingham in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hull City
3
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Birmingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Hull City have won 4, Birmingham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hull City 1-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Birmingham?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Hull City) and 12% (Birmingham) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Hull City and 25% for Birmingham.
On the defensive side: Birmingham in 50%; Hull City have failed to score in 50% of games; Birmingham in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Hull City's recent matches and 12% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hull City's recent games and 25% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Birmingham tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Birmingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Birmingham 2-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.70 xG and Birmingham 1.21 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Birmingham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.68 / defence 1.32 against Birmingham attack 0.82 / defence 0.97, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 21% | Draw 32% | Birmingham 48%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 24%, Birmingham 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 24%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not.
Birmingham's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Hull City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.