Fulham 1-1 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fulham at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fulham vs Blackpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Blackpool meet at Craven Cottage in Championship, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Championship record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Blackpool have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Blackpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackpool's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Fulham. A 0.80 PPG lead over Blackpool (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fulham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Blackpool in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Blackpool winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Blackpool half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 59% versus Blackpool 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 59% | Blackpool 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.25 xG and Blackpool 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.697 / defence 1.131 | Blackpool attack 0.854 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.163. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.697 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Blackpool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Fulham games / 27 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 63% | Draw 19% | Blackpool 18%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Blackpool 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Blackpool 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Blackpool | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 63% | Draw 19% | Blackpool 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Fulham 2.25 / Blackpool 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.697 / def 1.131 | Blackpool attack 0.854 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Fulham (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Blackpool xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Blackpool kick off?
Fulham vs Blackpool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Blackpool?
Fulham 1 - 1 Blackpool.
Where is Fulham vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Blackpool part of?
Fulham vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 63% chance of winning, Blackpool a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fulham and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Blackpool?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 0 | Blackpool 1W.
What form are Fulham and Blackpool in?
Fulham (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Blackpool (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fulham's attack at 1.70x the league average against Blackpool's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.85x) against Fulham's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.16
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.37
1.12
Blackpool xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
11%
9.47
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
2%
52.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Fulham and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Fulham and 1.12 for Blackpool, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Blackpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham come into this having played 27 games, going 17W 6D 4L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Blackpool sit at 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (10W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Blackpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Blackpool — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fulham's home form reads 8W 2D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackpool have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 2.70 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.04 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Blackpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 17W 6D 4L in their last 27 games (2.11 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Blackpool away?
Fulham's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.17 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Fulham or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Blackpool in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fulham
1
Draws
1
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Blackpool?
From 2 meetings on record, Fulham have won 0, Blackpool have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2022, when Fulham 1-1 Blackpool.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Blackpool?
Blackpool have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Fulham, 75% for Blackpool — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Fulham) and 50% (Blackpool). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Blackpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fulham's games and 75% of Blackpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fulham's matches and 50% of Blackpool's.
Do Fulham and Blackpool tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham and Blackpool share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham and Blackpool finished level at 1-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.25 xG and Blackpool 1.12 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fulham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.70 / defence 1.13 against Blackpool attack 0.85 / defence 1.27, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 63% | Draw 19% | Blackpool 18%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 59%, Blackpool 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Blackpool's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.