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Shock result as Wrexham defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wrexham beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.03 xG and Wrexham 0.98 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Wrexham outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Wrexham attack 0.82 / defence 0.89, drawn from 71/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 36% | Draw 32% | Wrexham 33%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wrexham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 42%, Wrexham 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Wrexham's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights