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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.84
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Derby xG
Total xG
2.92
1.21
Watford xG
DerbyDrawWatford
2.07
48%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
5%
21.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
1.718
λ Away (xG)
1.205
Total xG
2.923
League avg home goals
1.387
League avg away goals
1.002
Derby attack strength
0.957
Derby defence strength
1.083
Watford attack strength
1.109
Watford defence strength
1.294
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
26 / 72