Derby 0-3 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Swansea at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Pride Park this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Swansea have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Swansea have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 1.30 PPG, Swansea 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Derby have won 2, Swansea 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Swansea in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 67% and Swansea 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | Swansea 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.40 xG and Swansea 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.064 / defence 1.032 | Swansea attack 1.028 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.315. Data: 48 Derby games / 48 Swansea games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Derby 34% | Draw 32% | Swansea 34%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Swansea 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Swansea 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (48 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 34% | Draw 32% | Swansea 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Derby 1.40 / Swansea 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.064 / def 1.032 | Swansea attack 1.028 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Swansea xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Swansea kick off?
Derby vs Swansea kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Swansea?
Derby 0 - 3 Swansea.
Where is Derby vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Swansea part of?
Derby vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 34% chance of winning, Swansea a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Derby and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Swansea?
Record (6 meetings): Derby 2W | Draws 1 | Swansea 3W.
What form are Derby and Swansea in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Swansea (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Derby's attack rating (1.06) and Swansea's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (48/48 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
34%
2.92
32%
3.15
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Derby xG
Total xG
2.80
1.39
Swansea xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Derby and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Derby and 1.39 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 10D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.42 PPG from 48 outings (19W 11D 18L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Swansea, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.46 PPG, Swansea on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derby's home form reads 10W 7D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.17 points per game from 24 outings (8W 4D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.23 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Swansea
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Swansea in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while Swansea have gone 19W 11D 18L in their last 48 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Swansea away?
Derby's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.54 PPG; Swansea away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Swansea won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Derby
1
Draws
4
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Swansea?
From 7 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Swansea have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Derby 0-3 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 67%, Swansea 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Derby) and 50% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Swansea in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Derby's games and 50% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Derby's recent games and 50% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Swansea tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Swansea in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swansea run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Derby 0-3 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.40 xG and Swansea 1.39 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Derby fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Swansea outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.06 / defence 1.03 against Swansea attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Derby 34% | Draw 32% | Swansea 34%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Swansea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 54%, Swansea 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Swansea's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.46 PPG, Swansea 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.