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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derby and Southampton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pride Park, Regular Season - 9, as Derby and Southampton drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.44 xG and Southampton 1.30 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.96 / defence 1.12 against Southampton attack 0.99 / defence 1.26, drawn from 54/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 39% | Draw 27% | Southampton 33%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 37%, Southampton 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Southampton's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Southampton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights