🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Sheffield Utd defy the odds to beat Derby 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sheffield Utd beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 46, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.24 xG and Sheffield Utd 0.99 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sheffield Utd outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against Sheffield Utd attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 40% | Draw 32% | Sheffield Utd 28%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sheffield Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 45%, Sheffield Utd 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (91 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Sheffield Utd's trading profile (91 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.31 PPG, Sheffield Utd 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sheffield Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.98 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights