Derby vs QPR – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 32 as Derby welcome QPR to Pride Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 February 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 5W 1D 4L at Pride Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
QPR — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour QPR — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Derby, 3 for QPR and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
QPR trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 63% and QPR 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | QPR 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.97 xG and QPR 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.783 / defence 1.256 | QPR attack 1.026 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Derby's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Derby games / 54 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 21% | Draw 29% | QPR 51%. Fair-value odds: Derby 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | QPR 1.96. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derby 50% | QPR 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Feb 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 21% | Draw 29% | QPR 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Derby 0.97 / QPR 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.783 / def 1.256 | QPR attack 1.026 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: QPR (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.62
QPR xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs QPR kick off?
Derby vs QPR is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 February 2027 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs QPR part of?
Derby vs QPR is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 21% chance of winning, QPR a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Derby and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
Record (6 meetings): Derby 3W | Draws 0 | QPR 3W.
What form are Derby and QPR in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. QPR (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
21%
4.80
29%
3.49
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Derby xG
Total xG
2.59
1.62
QPR xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
4%
24.17
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Derby and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Derby and 1.62 for QPR, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 21W 11D 22L from 54 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 21L across 54 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.37 PPG, QPR on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 10W 7D 10L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 8W 9D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.31 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; QPR in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and QPR in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while QPR have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or QPR away?
Derby's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.37 PPG; QPR away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derby's record when hosting QPR specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
0
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and QPR?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, QPR have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when QPR 2-3 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 63%, QPR 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Derby) and 48% (QPR).
On the defensive side: QPR in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Derby's games and 56% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Derby's recent games and 48% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and QPR tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, QPR in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.