Derby vs Preston – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Preston meet at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 39. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park, Derby have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
Preston (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Preston have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derby lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 63% and Preston 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | Preston 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.39 xG and Preston 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.786 / defence 1.251 | Preston attack 0.949 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Derby's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Derby games / 54 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 33% | Draw 29% | Preston 38%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Preston 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Preston are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Preston 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 33% | Draw 29% | Preston 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Derby 1.39 / Preston 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.786 / def 1.251 | Preston attack 0.949 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Preston (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Preston xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Preston kick off?
Derby vs Preston is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Preston part of?
Derby vs Preston is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 33% chance of winning, Preston a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Derby and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Preston?
Record (6 meetings): Derby 3W | Draws 2 | Preston 1W.
What form are Derby and Preston in?
Derby (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Preston (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.95x) against Derby's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.50
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Derby xG
Total xG
2.88
1.49
Preston xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
10%
10.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Derby and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Derby and 1.49 for Preston, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 11D 22L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.19 PPG from 54 outings (16W 16D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Derby against 1.19 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (7W 9D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.17 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Preston in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Preston in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Preston have gone 16W 16D 22L in their last 54 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Preston away?
Derby's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.37 PPG; Preston away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
2
Draws
1
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Preston?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Preston have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Preston 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Preston?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 63%, Preston 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Derby) and 52% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Preston?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Derby's games and 63% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Derby's recent games and 52% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Preston tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Preston in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.