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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Preston.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Preston 2-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.04 xG and Preston 0.93 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Preston landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.80 / defence 1.00 against Preston attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/84 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 37% | Draw 31% | Preston 32%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Preston 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Preston's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.55 PPG, Preston 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights