Derby 1-1 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Portsmouth meet at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 December 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Pride Park this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pride Park this season.
Portsmouth have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Derby. A 1.20 PPG lead over Portsmouth (1.90 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derby lead 1W to 0W over the last 6 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 53% versus Portsmouth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 42% | Portsmouth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.47 xG and Portsmouth 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.869 / defence 1.123 | Portsmouth attack 0.725 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.204. Portsmouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Derby games / 66 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 28% | Portsmouth 25%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Portsmouth 4.00. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Derby 70% | Portsmouth 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Portsmouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 28% | Portsmouth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Derby 1.47 / Portsmouth 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.869 / def 1.123 | Portsmouth attack 0.725 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Derby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Portsmouth xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Portsmouth kick off?
Derby vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Portsmouth?
Derby 1 - 1 Portsmouth.
Where is Derby vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Portsmouth part of?
Derby vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 48% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Derby and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Portsmouth?
Record (6 meetings): Derby 1W | Draws 5 | Portsmouth 0W.
What form are Derby and Portsmouth in?
Derby (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Portsmouth (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.87x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (0.72x) against Derby's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 67/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.61
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Derby xG
Total xG
2.45
0.98
Portsmouth xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Derby and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Derby and 0.98 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 66 games, going 21W 17D 28L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Portsmouth sit at 1.12 PPG from 66 outings (19W 17D 30L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Derby against 1.12 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 10W 9D 13L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Portsmouth have taken 0.62 points per game from 32 outings (4W 8D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Portsmouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.14 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 17D 28L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 19W 17D 30L in their last 66 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Portsmouth away?
Derby's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.22 PPG; Portsmouth away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 4-0 on 13 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Portsmouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Derby
6
Draws
0
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Portsmouth?
From 9 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Portsmouth have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Portsmouth 0-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Portsmouth?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 47%, Portsmouth 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Derby) and 59% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Derby have failed to score in 31% of games; Portsmouth in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Derby's recent matches and 56% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Derby's recent games and 59% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Portsmouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park, Regular Season - 22, as Derby and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.47 xG and Portsmouth 0.98 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.87 / defence 1.12 against Portsmouth attack 0.72 / defence 1.22, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 48% | Draw 28% | Portsmouth 25%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 42%, Portsmouth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Portsmouth's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.21 PPG, Portsmouth 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Portsmouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.