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Prediction vindicated as Leeds edge out Derby 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.17 xG and Leeds 1.29 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against Leeds attack 1.17 / defence 0.80, drawn from 23/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 32% | Draw 30% | Leeds 38%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 52%, Leeds 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Leeds's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.72 PPG, Leeds 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Leeds (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights