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Coventry cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Derby.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Derby 3-5 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.25 xG and Coventry 0.92 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coventry outscored their 0.92 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.90 / defence 0.91 against Coventry attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/47 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Derby 44% | Draw 29% | Coventry 27%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Coventry win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Coventry 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Coventry's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.06 PPG, Coventry 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights