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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Derby cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coventry.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Coventry 2-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.96 xG and Coventry 1.31 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coventry landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.74 / defence 1.05 against Coventry attack 1.21 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 27% | Draw 29% | Coventry 44%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Derby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Coventry 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Coventry's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Derby 1.51 PPG, Coventry 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights