🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Birmingham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Derby beat Birmingham 1-0 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 39, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.59 xG and Birmingham 0.91 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Birmingham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Birmingham attack 0.75 / defence 1.18, drawn from 84/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Derby 52% | Draw 27% | Birmingham 20%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 44%, Birmingham 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Derby's trading profile (84 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Birmingham's trading profile (84 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Derby winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.02 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights