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Coventry cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wrexham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Wrexham 3-1 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.82 xG and Wrexham 0.96 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.34 / defence 0.84 against Wrexham attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 90/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 56% | Draw 26% | Wrexham 18%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 57%, Wrexham 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Wrexham's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.73 PPG, Wrexham 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Wrexham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.98 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights