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Dominant Coventry run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sunderland.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Sunderland 3-0 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.37 xG and Sunderland 1.33 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sunderland landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.16 / defence 1.09 against Sunderland attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 83/83 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 38% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 36%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 59%, Sunderland 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Sunderland's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.45 PPG, Sunderland 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights