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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Coventry run riot with a 7-1 hammering of QPR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat QPR 7-1 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.34 xG and QPR 0.93 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 7-1 for 8 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 5.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.01 / defence 0.80 against QPR attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 46% | Draw 28% | QPR 26%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 52%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

QPR's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.48 PPG, QPR 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights