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Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Portsmouth 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Portsmouth 1-0 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 41, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 2.54 xG and Portsmouth 0.90 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coventry fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Portsmouth landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.27 / defence 1.09 against Portsmouth attack 0.83 / defence 1.54, drawn from 86/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 73% | Draw 16% | Portsmouth 11%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 60%, Portsmouth 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Portsmouth's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.43 PPG, Portsmouth 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights