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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Coventry run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Plymouth.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Plymouth 4-0 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 2.56 xG and Plymouth 0.87 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plymouth landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.16 / defence 1.36 against Plymouth attack 0.62 / defence 1.58, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 73% | Draw 17% | Plymouth 10%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 61%, Plymouth 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Plymouth's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.31 PPG, Plymouth 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights