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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Coventry and Norwich share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry and Norwich finished level at 1-1 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.66 xG and Norwich 1.06 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.40 / defence 0.82 against Norwich attack 1.08 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 51% | Draw 24% | Norwich 24%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 54%, Norwich 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Norwich's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.50 PPG, Norwich 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights