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Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Coventry.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ipswich beat Coventry 0-2 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.84 xG and Ipswich 0.93 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Coventry fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Ipswich outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.34 / defence 0.77 against Ipswich attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 58% | Draw 24% | Ipswich 18%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Ipswich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 56%, Ipswich 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Ipswich's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Ipswich winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights