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Stalemate at Coventry's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Coventry and Hull City drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.34 xG and Hull City 0.89 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Coventry fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hull City landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against Hull City attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 47% | Draw 28% | Hull City 25%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 52%, Hull City 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Hull City's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.46 PPG, Hull City 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights