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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Coventry edge out Bristol City 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Coventry beat Bristol City 1-0 at Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 2.04 xG and Bristol City 0.98 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Coventry fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bristol City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.52 / defence 0.89 against Bristol City attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Coventry 61% | Draw 22% | Bristol City 17%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 57%, Bristol City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Coventry's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Bristol City's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Coventry 1.68 PPG, Bristol City 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bristol City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights