Charlton vs West Ham – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charlton at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees West Ham travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 2 March 2027, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at The Valley this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
West Ham — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.50 PPG, West Ham 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Charlton, 0 for West Ham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 2–1 with Charlton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
West Ham in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 56% versus West Ham 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | West Ham 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.30 xG and West Ham 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.715 / defence 0.683 | West Ham attack 1.167 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Charlton's attack strength of 0.715 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. West Ham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Charlton's defence rating of 0.683 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Charlton games / 8 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 41% | Draw 32% | West Ham 27%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | West Ham 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 50% | West Ham 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs West Ham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 41% | Draw 32% | West Ham 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Charlton 1.30 / West Ham 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.715 / def 0.683 | West Ham attack 1.167 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Charlton (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.00
West Ham xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs West Ham kick off?
Charlton vs West Ham is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at The Valley.
Where is Charlton vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs West Ham part of?
Charlton vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 41% chance of winning, West Ham a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Charlton and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and West Ham?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | West Ham 0W.
What form are Charlton and West Ham in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. West Ham (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.71x the league average against West Ham's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.11
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.30
1.00
West Ham xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Charlton and 1.00 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 13W 14D 19L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
West Ham's form line: 14W 12D 20L from 46 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.15 PPG, West Ham on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, West Ham have gone 5W 8D 10L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.48 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
West Ham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and West Ham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while West Ham have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or West Ham away?
Charlton's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.39 PPG; West Ham away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and West Ham runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
0
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and West Ham?
From 1 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, West Ham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when West Ham 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and West Ham?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 52%, West Ham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charlton) and 61% (West Ham).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; West Ham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Charlton's recent matches and 56% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charlton's recent games and 61% of West Ham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and West Ham tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, West Ham in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.