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Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out West Brom 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Charlton beat West Brom 1-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.33 xG and West Brom 0.89 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Brom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against West Brom attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 13/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Charlton 47% | Draw 28% | West Brom 25%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, West Brom 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Charlton's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

West Brom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Charlton 1.75 PPG, West Brom 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights